Somaspor vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Match result probability Model pick: Arnavutköy Belediyespor win
Somaspor win
32.7%
Draw
25.1%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor winPick
42.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.4%
No47.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%
How much we know
Somaspor history50 matches
Arnavutköy Belediyespor history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Arnavutköy Belediyespor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Arnavutköy Belediyespor are rated 72 Elo points higher
Elo 1,480 against 1,408. On rating alone Arnavutköy Belediyespor would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Arnavutköy Belediyespor score more
1.10 goals a game over 50 matches for Somaspor, against 1.28 over 50 for Arnavutköy Belediyespor.
-
Arnavutköy Belediyespor concede fewer
Somaspor concede 1.82 a game, Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1.44.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
60% of Somaspor matches, against 54% for Arnavutköy Belediyespor. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arnavutköy Belediyespor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1407.7
ELO
1479.7
50
ELO · Matches
50
1407.7
Current Team ELO
1479.7
1479.7
Current Opponent ELO
1407.7
-71.99
Current ELO Difference
71.99
0.40
Expected score
0.60
50
History Matches
50
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.01
43.64
Overperformance
48.94
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
50
0.86
PPG
1.18
22.0%
Win rate
32.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.0%
58.0%
Loss rate
46.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
24
0.96
PPG
1.13
28.0%
Win rate
29.2%
12.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
45.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
1.28
54.0%
Scoring rate
68.0%
42.0%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.08
68.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.0%
BTTS rate
41.7%
50
History Matches
50
1.10
Goals Mean
1.28
1.49
Goals Std
1.25
54.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
24.0%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.0%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.82
Goals against per game
1.44
76.0%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.46
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
50
1.82
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.58
Conceded Std
1.34
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.0%
32.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
46.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
46.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
50
0.88
Result entropy
0.96
2.29
Goal Difference Std
1.91
11.62
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
49
8
Lead Matches
13
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.87
18
Trailing Matches
21
11.1%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
203.0
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
36
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
13
Long Rest History Matches
12
0.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.18
Portability PPG Range
0.30
84.62
Portability Score
76.74
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-71.99
PPG-0.32
GF-0.18
GA0.38
PPG-0.17
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score7.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.59
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score7.87
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-71.99
Current Opponent ELO71.99
Current ELO Difference-144.0
Expected score-0.20
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Somaspor
D
Somaspor0–0Sebat Gençlikspor4 Nov · home
Pick: Sebat Gençlikspor 49% · missed L
Somaspor0–2Çorluspor 19471 Nov · home
Pick: Çorluspor 1947 59% · hit L
Güzide Gebzespor4–1Somaspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Güzide Gebzespor 46% · hit L
Somaspor1–2Aliağa FAŞ18 Oct · home
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 55% · hit W
Somaspor4–2Alanya 1221 FK7 Oct · home
Pick: Somaspor 41% · hit Arnavutköy Belediyespor
L
Erbaaspor2–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Erbaaspor 48% · hit L
Balıkesirspor1–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor28 Oct · away
Pick: Balıkesirspor 49% · hit L
Arnavutköy Belediyespor0–2Şanlıurfaspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 44% · hit L
Elazığspor3–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor17 Oct · away
Pick: Elazığspor 67% · hit L
Kastamonuspor2–1Arnavutköy Belediyespor4 Oct · away
Pick: Kastamonuspor 44% · hit About this match
Somaspor and Arnavutköy Belediyespor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Somaspor win 32.7%, draw 25.1%, Arnavutköy Belediyespor win 42.2%. The pick is Arnavutköy Belediyespor win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.