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Primera División Peru Round 17 2026

Sport Huancayo vs Universitario

Sport Huancayo Home · Elo 1,493
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Universitario Away · Elo 1,605
Estadio Huancayo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Universitario win
Sport Huancayo win
28.0%
Draw
25.8%
Universitario winPick
46.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%

How much we know

Sport Huancayo history56 matches
Universitario history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Universitario are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Universitario are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,493. On rating alone Universitario would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.43 goals a game over 56 matches for Sport Huancayo, against 1.48 over 64 for Universitario.

  • Universitario concede fewer

    Sport Huancayo concede 1.43 a game, Universitario 0.88.

  • Sport Huancayo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Sport Huancayo matches, against 42% for Universitario. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sport Huancayo
Universitario@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.5
ELO
1605.2
56
ELO · Matches
64
1492.5
Current Team ELO
1605.2
1605.2
Current Opponent ELO
1492.5
-112.6
Current ELO Difference
112.6
0.34
Expected score
0.66
56
History Matches
64
0.00
Residual Mean
0.08
49.75
Overperformance
56.29
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
64
1.38
PPG
1.84
39.3%
Win rate
51.6%
19.6%
Draw rate
29.7%
41.1%
Loss rate
18.8%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
31
1.83
PPG
1.55
55.2%
Win rate
38.7%
17.2%
Draw rate
38.7%
27.6%
Loss rate
22.6%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
32.3%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
29
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.48
82.1%
Scoring rate
70.3%
64.3%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.10
86.2%
Scoring rate
67.7%
65.5%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.58
86.4%
Scoring rate
73.7%
72.7%
BTTS rate
57.9%
56
History Matches
64
1.43
Goals Mean
1.48
1.15
Goals Std
1.32
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
0.88
76.8%
Conceding rate
60.9%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.94
79.3%
Conceding rate
61.3%
1.68
Goals against per game
0.95
81.8%
Conceding rate
68.4%
56
History Matches
64
1.43
Conceded Mean
0.88
1.18
Conceded Std
0.89
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.3%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.7%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
23.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
64
0.96
Result entropy
0.92
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.60
4.22
Stability score
7.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
63
13
Lead Matches
24
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.88
16
Trailing Matches
10
18.8%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.21
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
6
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
29
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.03
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
19
1.05
PPG
1.89
27.3%
Win rate
52.6%
22.7%
Draw rate
31.6%
50.0%
Loss rate
15.8%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
22
Current Competition Matches
19
1.05
Current Competition PPG
1.89
-0.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.63
3
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.45
Portability PPG Range
1.33
45.00
Portability Score
47.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-112.6
PPG-0.47
GF-0.06
GA0.55
PPG-0.85
PPG0.28
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate11.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.55
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate22.5%
Conceded 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-3.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG-0.85
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.04
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-2.23
Rest days1.31
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-112.6
Current Opponent ELO112.6
Current ELO Difference-225.2
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sport Huancayo

W
Sport Huancayo2–0FBC Melgar2 Nov · home
Pick: FBC Melgar 44% · missed
L
Juan Pablo II College2–0Sport Huancayo27 Oct · away
Pick: Juan Pablo II College 44% · hit
W
Sport Huancayo4–1Alianza Atletico24 Oct · home
Pick: Alianza Atletico 39% · missed
W
Sport Huancayo2–1Cusco16 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Huancayo 39% · hit
W
ADT1–3Sport Huancayo30 Aug · away
Pick: ADT 51% · missed

Universitario

W
Atletico Grau1–3Universitario1 Nov · away
Pick: Universitario 40% · hit
W
Universitario3–0Juan Pablo II College25 Oct · home
Pick: Universitario 71% · hit
W
Alianza Atletico1–4Universitario18 Oct · away
Pick: Universitario 39% · hit
W
UTC Cajamarca2–4Universitario29 Aug · away
Pick: Universitario 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sport Huancayo and Universitario meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Huancayo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sport Huancayo win 28.0%, draw 25.8%, Universitario win 46.2%. The pick is Universitario win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.0%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.