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League Two England Round 15 2026

Swindon Town vs Grimsby

Swindon Town Home · Elo 1,534
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grimsby Away · Elo 1,598
County Ground, Swindon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Grimsby win
Swindon Town win
31.9%
Draw
27.6%
Grimsby winPick
40.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Swindon Town history86 matches
Grimsby history94 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Grimsby are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Grimsby are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,534. On rating alone Grimsby would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Swindon Town score more

    1.84 goals a game over 86 matches for Swindon Town, against 1.57 over 94 for Grimsby.

  • Defences are close

    Swindon Town concede 1.28 a game, Grimsby 1.17.

  • Swindon Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Swindon Town matches, against 52% for Grimsby. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Swindon Town
Grimsby@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1533.6
ELO
1597.9
86
ELO · Matches
94
1533.6
Current Team ELO
1597.9
1597.9
Current Opponent ELO
1533.6
-64.28
Current ELO Difference
64.28
0.41
Expected score
0.59
86
History Matches
94
0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
51.22
Overperformance
54.61
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
94
1.71
PPG
1.72
50.0%
Win rate
48.9%
20.9%
Draw rate
25.5%
29.1%
Loss rate
25.5%
80.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
66.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
44
1.76
PPG
1.66
50.0%
Win rate
43.2%
26.2%
Draw rate
36.4%
23.8%
Loss rate
20.5%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
42
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.57
83.7%
Scoring rate
77.7%
58.1%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.34
83.3%
Scoring rate
77.3%
61.9%
BTTS rate
52.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
86
History Matches
94
1.84
Goals Mean
1.57
1.31
Goals Std
1.36
83.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.7%
57.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.7%
26.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.17
69.8%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.05
71.4%
Conceding rate
63.6%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
86
History Matches
94
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.18
Conceded Std
1.06
36.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
94
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.77
5.97
Stability score
4.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
94
25
Lead Matches
35
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.86
23
Trailing Matches
22
34.8%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
17.4%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
94
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.89
70
Normal Rest History Matches
72
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
12
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
9
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.25
46.17
Portability Score
55.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
94
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-64.28
PPG-0.01
GF0.26
GA0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate12.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score1.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate4.0%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-8.97
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO-64.28
Current Opponent ELO64.28
Current ELO Difference-128.6
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Swindon Town

L
Milton Keynes Dons2–1Swindon Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 43% · hit
W
Swindon Town2–1Rotherham31 Oct · home
Pick: Swindon Town 49% · hit
D
Bristol Rovers0–0Swindon Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol Rovers 43% · missed
W
Barnet1–3Swindon Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Barnet 55% · missed
D
Swindon Town1–1Walsall17 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 39% · missed

Grimsby

W
Grimsby5–2York31 Oct · home
Pick: Grimsby 39% · hit
W
Gillingham1–4Grimsby24 Oct · away
Pick: Grimsby 54% · hit
D
Rochdale2–2Grimsby20 Oct · away
Pick: Grimsby 38% · missed
L
Grimsby0–2Northampton17 Oct · home
Pick: Grimsby 56% · missed
D
Accrington ST2–2Grimsby1 Sep · away
Pick: Grimsby 49% · missed

About this match

Swindon Town and Grimsby meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at County Ground, Swindon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Swindon Town win 31.9%, draw 27.6%, Grimsby win 40.6%. The pick is Grimsby win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.