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3. liga - MSFL Czechia MSFL - 16 2026

Vrchovina vs Hodonín

Vrchovina Home · Elo 1,560
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hodonín Away · Elo 1,571
Stadium Nove Mesto Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vrchovina win
Vrchovina winPick
40.7%
Draw
24.4%
Hodonín win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.3%
No37.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Vrchovina history62 matches
Hodonín history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Vrchovina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,560 against 1,571. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Hodonín score more

    1.84 goals a game over 62 matches for Vrchovina, against 2.06 over 67 for Hodonín.

  • Defences are close

    Vrchovina concede 1.44 a game, Hodonín 1.40.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Vrchovina matches, against 61% for Hodonín. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vrchovina
Hodonín@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1560.4
ELO
1571.3
62
ELO · Matches
67
1560.4
Current Team ELO
1571.3
1571.3
Current Opponent ELO
1560.4
-10.90
Current ELO Difference
10.90
0.48
Expected score
0.52
62
History Matches
67
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
52.83
Overperformance
54.11
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.90
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
2.26
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
67
1.71
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.7%
21.0%
Draw rate
22.4%
29.0%
Loss rate
26.9%
79.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.1%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.2%
38.7%
Over 3.5 rate
46.3%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
33
2.00
PPG
1.88
57.1%
Win rate
54.5%
28.6%
Draw rate
24.2%
14.3%
Loss rate
21.2%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
57.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
28
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
2.06
74.2%
Scoring rate
83.6%
51.6%
BTTS rate
64.2%
2.21
Goals for per game
2.39
85.7%
Scoring rate
87.9%
60.7%
BTTS rate
72.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
62
History Matches
67
1.84
Goals Mean
2.06
1.55
Goals Std
1.51
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
53.2%
Scored 2+ rate
59.7%
37.1%
Scored 3+ rate
34.3%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
2.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.40
72.6%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.52
67.9%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
67
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.57
Conceded Std
1.11
37.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
67
0.94
Result entropy
0.94
2.29
Goal Difference Std
1.81
5.96
Stability score
6.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
66
26
Lead Matches
20
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.88
16
Trailing Matches
17
25.0%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.94
Rest days
83.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
30
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.17
Portability PPG Range
1.56
54.31
Portability Score
44.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-10.90
PPG-0.04
GF-0.22
GA0.03
PPG1.25
PPG0.12
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate9.4%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.60
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.36
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score-0.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.33
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate7.3%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score9.37
Rest days0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-8
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO-10.90
Current Opponent ELO10.90
Current ELO Difference-21.81
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vrchovina

L
Vrchovina0–2Sigma Olomouc II7 Nov · home
Pick: Sigma Olomouc II 45% · hit
L
Polanka nad Odrou4–2Vrchovina1 Nov · away
Pick: Vrchovina 41% · missed
W
Vrchovina2–0Havířov24 Oct · home
Pick: Vrchovina 55% · hit
L
Uherský Brod4–0Vrchovina17 Oct · away
Pick: Uherský Brod 52% · hit
W
Vrchovina1–0Karviná II29 Aug · home
Pick: Vrchovina 46% · hit

Hodonín

W
Hodonín4–0Polanka nad Odrou7 Nov · home
Pick: Hodonín 46% · hit
W
Havířov0–1Hodonín1 Nov · away
Pick: Hodonín 47% · hit
L
Hodonín1–2Uherský Brod24 Oct · home
Pick: Uherský Brod 41% · hit
L
Uničov3–2Hodonín18 Oct · away
Pick: Uničov 50% · hit
L
Hodonín0–2Vítkovice29 Aug · home
Pick: Hodonín 43% · missed

About this match

Vrchovina and Hodonín meet in 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadium Nove Mesto. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Vrchovina win 40.7%, draw 24.4%, Hodonín win 34.9%. The pick is Vrchovina win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.