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3. liga - MSFL Czechia MSFL - 16 2026

Frýdek-Místek vs Vítkovice

Frýdek-Místek Home · Elo 1,606
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vítkovice Away · Elo 1,559
Stadion Stovky, Frydek-Mistek Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Frýdek-Místek win
Frýdek-Místek winPick
61.3%
Draw
19.4%
Vítkovice win
19.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.2%
No40.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Frýdek-Místek history71 matches
Vítkovice history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.3%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Frýdek-Místek are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Frýdek-Místek are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,606 against 1,559. On rating alone Frýdek-Místek would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.96 goals a game over 71 matches for Frýdek-Místek, against 1.87 over 63 for Vítkovice.

  • Defences are close

    Frýdek-Místek concede 1.24 a game, Vítkovice 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Frýdek-Místek matches, against 57% for Vítkovice. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Frýdek-Místek
Vítkovice@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1605.8
ELO
1559.4
71
ELO · Matches
63
1605.8
Current Team ELO
1559.4
1559.4
Current Opponent ELO
1605.8
46.33
Current ELO Difference
-46.33
0.57
Expected score
0.43
71
History Matches
63
0.08
Residual Mean
0.04
55.91
Overperformance
53.40
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.00
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
63
1.89
PPG
1.62
54.9%
Win rate
44.4%
23.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
21.1%
Loss rate
27.0%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.0%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
36.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
32
2.16
PPG
1.41
64.9%
Win rate
34.4%
21.6%
Draw rate
37.5%
13.5%
Loss rate
28.1%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
37
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.96
Goals for per game
1.87
88.7%
Scoring rate
81.0%
52.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.84
86.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
37.8%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
63
1.96
Goals Mean
1.87
1.60
Goals Std
1.66
88.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
52.1%
Scored 2+ rate
50.8%
25.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.30
60.6%
Conceding rate
68.3%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.34
48.6%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
63
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.47
Conceded Std
1.30
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
63
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
2.27
Goal Difference Std
2.17
8.99
Stability score
2.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
62
35
Lead Matches
23
77.1%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.84
12
Trailing Matches
16
58.3%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.94
Rest days
83.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.26
Portability PPG Range
1.70
51.84
Portability Score
43.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO46.33
PPG0.27
GF0.08
GA-0.06
PPG1.25
PPG0.76
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate20.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate1.3%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.13
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score6.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.29
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate27.1%
Trailing Win Rate2.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score8.05
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.57
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO46.33
Current Opponent ELO-46.33
Current ELO Difference92.66
Expected score0.13
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Frýdek-Místek

W
Frýdek-Místek3–0Líšeň II31 Oct · home
Pick: Frýdek-Místek 39% · hit
W
Blansko0–3Frýdek-Místek24 Oct · away
Pick: Frýdek-Místek 57% · hit
W
Frýdek-Místek2–1Slovácko II17 Oct · home
Pick: Frýdek-Místek 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vítkovice

D
Vítkovice1–1Unie Hlubina7 Nov · home
Pick: Unie Hlubina 52% · missed
W
Vsetín1–4Vítkovice31 Oct · away
Pick: Vítkovice 46% · hit
W
Vítkovice4–2Zbrojovka Brno II24 Oct · home
Pick: Vítkovice 48% · hit
L
Hranice2–1Vítkovice16 Oct · away
Pick: Hranice 49% · hit
W
Hodonín0–2Vítkovice29 Aug · away
Pick: Hodonín 43% · missed

About this match

Frýdek-Místek and Vítkovice meet in 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Stovky, Frydek-Mistek. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Frýdek-Místek win 61.3%, draw 19.4%, Vítkovice win 19.3%. The pick is Frýdek-Místek win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.