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3. liga - MSFL Czechia MSFL - 16 2026

Polanka nad Odrou vs Slovácko II

Polanka nad Odrou Home · Elo 1,437
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Slovácko II Away · Elo 1,507
Stadium Polanka nad Odrou Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Slovácko II win
Polanka nad Odrou win
30.7%
Draw
22.6%
Slovácko II winPick
46.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%
No39.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

Polanka nad Odrou history64 matches
Slovácko II history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Slovácko II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Slovácko II are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,437. On rating alone Slovácko II would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 64 matches for Polanka nad Odrou, against 1.42 over 67 for Slovácko II.

  • Defences are close

    Polanka nad Odrou concede 1.64 a game, Slovácko II 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Polanka nad Odrou matches, against 63% for Slovácko II. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polanka nad Odrou
Slovácko II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1436.6
ELO
1507.4
64
ELO · Matches
67
1436.6
Current Team ELO
1507.4
1507.4
Current Opponent ELO
1436.6
-70.74
Current ELO Difference
70.74
0.40
Expected score
0.60
64
History Matches
67
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
45.84
Overperformance
50.62
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.50
1.40
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
67
1.13
PPG
1.33
29.7%
Win rate
35.8%
23.4%
Draw rate
25.4%
46.9%
Loss rate
38.8%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.7%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
1.07
PPG
1.21
26.7%
Win rate
33.3%
26.7%
Draw rate
21.2%
46.7%
Loss rate
45.5%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.42
73.4%
Scoring rate
80.6%
60.9%
BTTS rate
58.2%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.33
73.3%
Scoring rate
84.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
63.6%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
64
History Matches
67
1.36
Goals Mean
1.42
1.28
Goals Std
1.05
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
41.8%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.9%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.61
81.3%
Conceding rate
71.6%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.67
83.3%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
64
History Matches
67
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.29
Conceded Std
1.52
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.8%
26.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.2%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
67
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.93
3.90
Stability score
1.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
65
19
Lead Matches
19
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.79
21
Trailing Matches
20
14.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.20
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
28
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.75
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.82
Portability PPG Range
1.89
40.78
Portability Score
41.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-70.74
PPG-0.20
GF-0.06
GA0.03
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.15
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score2.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score-0.99
Rest days0.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-70.74
Current Opponent ELO70.74
Current ELO Difference-141.5
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Polanka nad Odrou

L
Hodonín4–0Polanka nad Odrou7 Nov · away
Pick: Hodonín 46% · hit
W
Polanka nad Odrou4–2Vrchovina1 Nov · home
Pick: Vrchovina 41% · missed
L
Polanka nad Odrou0–5Sigma Olomouc II25 Oct · home
Pick: Sigma Olomouc II 50% · hit
L
Havířov3–1Polanka nad Odrou18 Oct · away
Pick: Polanka nad Odrou 42% · missed
L
Uničov3–1Polanka nad Odrou4 Oct · away
Pick: Uničov 56% · hit

Slovácko II

W
Uherský Brod1–2Slovácko II31 Oct · away
Pick: Uherský Brod 42% · missed
L
Slovácko II1–2Uničov25 Oct · home
Pick: Slovácko II 44% · missed
L
Frýdek-Místek2–1Slovácko II17 Oct · away
Pick: Frýdek-Místek 49% · hit
D
Slovácko II1–1Zlín II30 Aug · home
Pick: Slovácko II 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Polanka nad Odrou and Slovácko II meet in 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadium Polanka nad Odrou. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Polanka nad Odrou win 30.7%, draw 22.6%, Slovácko II win 46.7%. The pick is Slovácko II win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.