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3. liga - MSFL Czechia MSFL - 16 2026

Vsetín vs Hranice

Vsetín Home · Elo 1,487
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hranice Away · Elo 1,454
Football pitch Lhota u Vsetina Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vsetín win
Vsetín winPick
42.0%
Draw
20.2%
Hranice win
37.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.6%
Under 2.535.4%

How much we know

Vsetín history64 matches
Hranice history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Vsetín are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vsetín are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,487 against 1,454. On rating alone Vsetín would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Vsetín score more

    1.75 goals a game over 64 matches for Vsetín, against 1.47 over 60 for Hranice.

  • Defences are close

    Vsetín concede 1.58 a game, Hranice 1.62.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Vsetín matches, against 62% for Hranice. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vsetín
Hranice@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.0
ELO
1454.5
64
ELO · Matches
60
1487.0
Current Team ELO
1454.5
1454.5
Current Opponent ELO
1487.0
32.53
Current ELO Difference
-32.53
0.55
Expected score
0.45
64
History Matches
60
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.24
Overperformance
47.49
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.85
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
60
1.52
PPG
1.22
45.3%
Win rate
33.3%
15.6%
Draw rate
21.7%
39.1%
Loss rate
45.0%
85.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
67.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.7%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.61
PPG
1.28
50.0%
Win rate
34.5%
10.7%
Draw rate
24.1%
39.3%
Loss rate
41.4%
96.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
53.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.75
Goals for per game
1.47
73.4%
Scoring rate
68.3%
56.3%
BTTS rate
51.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.41
85.7%
Scoring rate
72.4%
67.9%
BTTS rate
55.2%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
64
History Matches
60
1.75
Goals Mean
1.47
1.62
Goals Std
1.43
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
68.3%
51.6%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
26.6%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.58
Goals against per game
1.62
81.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.41
82.1%
Conceding rate
82.8%
3.25
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
64
History Matches
60
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.36
Conceded Std
1.27
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.3%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
60
0.92
Result entropy
0.96
2.48
Goal Difference Std
2.19
7.53
Stability score
3.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
60
20
Lead Matches
17
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.84
18
Trailing Matches
19
5.6%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
33
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
0.75
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.03
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.93
Portability PPG Std
0.47
2.71
Portability PPG Range
1.18
34.99
Portability Score
51.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO32.53
PPG0.30
GF0.28
GA-0.04
PPG-0.75
PPG0.33
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate5.1%
Scored 2+ rate9.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score3.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.46
Portability PPG Range1.54
Portability Score-16.39
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO32.53
Current Opponent ELO-32.53
Current ELO Difference65.05
Expected score0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vsetín

L
Vsetín1–4Vítkovice31 Oct · home
Pick: Vítkovice 46% · hit
L
Zlín II2–0Vsetín25 Oct · away
Pick: Zlín II 54% · hit
L
Vsetín0–1Líšeň II17 Oct · home
Pick: Líšeň II 64% · hit
L
Uherský Brod2–1Vsetín29 Aug · away
Pick: Uherský Brod 71% · hit
W
Vsetín2–1Hanácká26 Aug · home
Pick: Vsetín 41% · hit

Hranice

L
Hranice1–4Zbrojovka Brno II6 Nov · home
Pick: Hranice 54% · missed
L
Sigma Olomouc II5–1Hranice31 Oct · away
Pick: Sigma Olomouc II 61% · hit
L
Karviná II2–0Hranice25 Oct · away
Pick: Karviná II 45% · hit
W
Hranice2–1Vítkovice16 Oct · home
Pick: Hranice 49% · hit
W
Polanka nad Odrou0–1Hranice30 Aug · away
Pick: Hranice 41% · hit

About this match

Vsetín and Hranice meet in 3. liga - MSFL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Football pitch Lhota u Vsetina. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Vsetín win 42.0%, draw 20.2%, Hranice win 37.8%. The pick is Vsetín win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.6%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.