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League Two England Round 15 2026

Walsall vs Barnet

Walsall Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barnet Away · Elo 1,596
Bescot Stadium, Walsall Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barnet win
Walsall win
29.6%
Draw
29.9%
Barnet winPick
40.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Walsall history89 matches
Barnet history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Barnet are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Barnet are rated 110 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,486. On rating alone Barnet would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Barnet score more

    1.19 goals a game over 89 matches for Walsall, against 1.76 over 83 for Barnet.

  • Barnet concede fewer

    Walsall concede 1.20 a game, Barnet 1.06.

  • Barnet games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Walsall matches, against 55% for Barnet. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Walsall
Barnet@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.1
ELO
1596.4
89
ELO · Matches
83
1486.1
Current Team ELO
1596.4
1596.4
Current Opponent ELO
1486.1
-110.3
Current ELO Difference
110.3
0.35
Expected score
0.65
89
History Matches
83
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
48.73
Overperformance
54.66
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
83
1.35
PPG
1.81
34.8%
Win rate
50.6%
30.3%
Draw rate
28.9%
34.8%
Loss rate
20.5%
66.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
46.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
40
1.12
PPG
1.88
26.8%
Win rate
55.0%
31.7%
Draw rate
22.5%
41.5%
Loss rate
22.5%
61.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
41
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.76
65.2%
Scoring rate
86.7%
47.2%
BTTS rate
59.0%
0.98
Goals for per game
1.60
58.5%
Scoring rate
82.5%
48.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
3.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
89
History Matches
83
1.19
Goals Mean
1.76
1.10
Goals Std
1.30
65.2%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
48.2%
13.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
0.98
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.06
68.5%
Conceding rate
65.1%
1.34
Goals against per game
0.98
73.2%
Conceding rate
57.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
89
History Matches
83
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.14
Conceded Std
0.99
34.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.5%
10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.0%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
0.98
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.5%
41.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.5%
41.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
83
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.68
0.19
Stability score
6.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
83
23
Lead Matches
30
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.82
25
Trailing Matches
16
28.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
16.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
69
Normal Rest History Matches
65
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
9
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.17
48.98
Portability Score
54.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-110.3
PPG-0.46
GF-0.57
GA0.14
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate21.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate24.0%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.00
History Matches6
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-6.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate9.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-5.83
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-110.3
Current Opponent ELO110.3
Current ELO Difference-220.5
Expected score-0.31
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Walsall

L
Newport County3–1Walsall7 Nov · away
Pick: Walsall 44% · missed
W
Colchester1–3Walsall31 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 38% · hit
L
Walsall2–4Salford City26 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 49% · missed
W
Walsall3–0Oldham20 Oct · home
Pick: Walsall 46% · hit
D
Swindon Town1–1Walsall17 Oct · away
Pick: Walsall 39% · missed

Barnet

W
Barnet3–0Tranmere7 Nov · home
Pick: Barnet 57% · hit
D
Crewe1–1Barnet31 Oct · away
Pick: Barnet 37% · missed
D
Barnet1–1Oldham24 Oct · home
Pick: Barnet 55% · missed
L
Barnet1–3Swindon Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Barnet 55% · missed
W
Tranmere1–2Barnet17 Oct · away
Pick: Barnet 43% · hit

About this match

Walsall and Barnet meet in League Two on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Bescot Stadium, Walsall. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Walsall win 29.6%, draw 29.9%, Barnet win 40.6%. The pick is Barnet win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.