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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Zwaluwen vs Blauw Geel

Zwaluwen Home · Elo 1,513
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Blauw Geel Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Blauw Geel win
Zwaluwen win
34.3%
Draw
23.1%
Blauw Geel winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.5%
No41.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.9%
Under 2.543.1%

How much we know

Zwaluwen history37 matches
Blauw Geel history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Blauw Geel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zwaluwen are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,481. On rating alone Zwaluwen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Zwaluwen score more

    1.70 goals a game over 37 matches for Zwaluwen, against 1.53 over 53 for Blauw Geel.

  • Defences are close

    Zwaluwen concede 1.38 a game, Blauw Geel 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Zwaluwen matches, against 62% for Blauw Geel. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zwaluwen
Blauw Geel@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.6
ELO
1481.2
37
ELO · Matches
53
1512.6
Current Team ELO
1481.2
1481.2
Current Opponent ELO
1512.6
31.46
Current ELO Difference
-31.46
0.55
Expected score
0.45
37
History Matches
53
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.90
Overperformance
48.56
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
53
1.51
PPG
1.40
43.2%
Win rate
39.6%
21.6%
Draw rate
20.8%
35.1%
Loss rate
39.6%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.3%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
37.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
27
1.67
PPG
1.37
50.0%
Win rate
40.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
14.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
18
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.70
Goals for per game
1.53
75.7%
Scoring rate
71.7%
62.2%
BTTS rate
50.9%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.33
77.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
61.1%
BTTS rate
48.1%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
37
History Matches
53
1.70
Goals Mean
1.53
1.45
Goals Std
1.38
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
48.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.4%
29.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.5%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.51
81.1%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.59
77.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
37
History Matches
53
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.05
Conceded Std
1.22
40.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.97
3.41
Stability score
3.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
49
8
Lead Matches
17
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.76
5
Trailing Matches
16
20.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
83.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
16
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.13
—
Portability PPG Range
0.25
—
Portability Score
79.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.46
PPG0.12
GF0.17
GA-0.13
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate4.0%
Scored 2+ rate5.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate16.9%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO31.46
Current Opponent ELO-31.46
Current ELO Difference62.91
Expected score0.09
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zwaluwen

W
Zwaluwen1–0TOGB7 Nov · home
Pick: Zwaluwen 41% · hit
W
Vvsb2–4Zwaluwen24 Oct · away
Pick: Vvsb 63% · missed
L
Zwaluwen0–2Excelsior Maassluis17 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 56% · hit
L
Poortugaal3–1Zwaluwen29 Aug · away
Pick: Poortugaal 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Blauw Geel

L
TOGB3–1Blauw Geel24 Oct · away
Pick: TOGB 41% · hit
L
Blauw Geel1–3Poortugaal17 Oct · home
Pick: Blauw Geel 45% · missed
D
Blauw Geel1–1UNA4 Oct · home
Pick: Blauw Geel 39% · missed
L
Sportlust '463–1Blauw Geel1 Sep · away
Pick: Sportlust '46 41% · hit
L
Achilles Veen3–2Blauw Geel29 Aug · away
Pick: Blauw Geel 46% · missed

About this match

Zwaluwen and Blauw Geel meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Zwaluwen win 34.3%, draw 23.1%, Blauw Geel win 42.5%. The pick is Blauw Geel win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.9%. Both teams to score: 58.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.