Adana 01 FK vs 1461 Trabzon FK
Match result probability Model pick: Adana 01 FK win
Adana 01 FK winPick
49.3%
Draw
26.2%
1461 Trabzon FK win
24.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.7%
No47.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%
How much we know
Adana 01 FK history55 matches
1461 Trabzon FK history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Adana 01 FK
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Adana 01 FK are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Adana 01 FK are rated 73 Elo points higher
Elo 1,588 against 1,514. On rating alone Adana 01 FK would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.58 goals a game over 55 matches for Adana 01 FK, against 1.57 over 51 for 1461 Trabzon FK.
-
Adana 01 FK concede fewer
Adana 01 FK concede 1.04 a game, 1461 Trabzon FK 1.25.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
51% of Adana 01 FK matches, against 59% for 1461 Trabzon FK. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 5 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1461 Trabzon FK@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1587.7
ELO
1514.5
55
ELO · Matches
51
1587.7
Current Team ELO
1514.5
1514.5
Current Opponent ELO
1587.7
73.20
Current ELO Difference
-73.20
0.60
Expected score
0.40
55
History Matches
51
0.08
Residual Mean
0.01
56.10
Overperformance
50.82
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
51
1.80
PPG
1.57
50.9%
Win rate
45.1%
27.3%
Draw rate
21.6%
21.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
70.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
26
2.14
PPG
1.54
62.1%
Win rate
46.2%
27.6%
Draw rate
15.4%
10.3%
Loss rate
38.5%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.58
Goals for per game
1.57
72.7%
Scoring rate
78.4%
47.3%
BTTS rate
47.1%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.69
79.3%
Scoring rate
80.8%
48.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
51
1.58
Goals Mean
1.57
1.32
Goals Std
1.21
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
25.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.04
Goals against per game
1.25
60.0%
Conceding rate
62.7%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.35
55.2%
Conceding rate
69.2%
55
History Matches
51
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.14
Conceded Std
1.34
25.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
51
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.88
6.23
Stability score
3.86
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
49
20
Lead Matches
19
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.81
14
Trailing Matches
14
28.6%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
193.7
Rest days
202.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
13
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.62
80.85
Portability Score
64.44
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO73.20
PPG0.23
GF0.01
GA-0.22
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate2.0%
Scored 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score2.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score16.41
Rest days-9.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO73.20
Current Opponent ELO-73.20
Current ELO Difference146.4
Expected score0.21
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Adana 01 FK
D
İnegölspor1–1Adana 01 FK24 Oct · away
Pick: Adana 01 FK 40% · missed W
Adana 01 FK4–0Karacabey Belediyespor18 Oct · home
Pick: Adana 01 FK 43% · hit W
Adana 01 FK1–012 Bingölspor4 Oct · home
Pick: Adana 01 FK 52% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
1461 Trabzon FK
W
1461 Trabzon FK2–1Fethiyespor1 Nov · home
Pick: Fethiyespor 37% · missed W
Yeni Orduspor0–21461 Trabzon FK28 Oct · away
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 60% · missed D
Ankaragücü2–21461 Trabzon FK24 Oct · away
Pick: Ankaragücü 49% · missed W
1461 Trabzon FK2–1İnegölspor17 Oct · home
Pick: İnegölspor 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Adana 01 FK and 1461 Trabzon FK meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Adana 01 FK win 49.3%, draw 26.2%, 1461 Trabzon FK win 24.4%. The pick is Adana 01 FK win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.8%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.