İskenderunspor vs Karacabey Belediyespor
Match result probability Model pick: İskenderunspor win
İskenderunspor winPick
37.6%
Draw
29.1%
Karacabey Belediyespor win
33.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.5%
No46.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
How much we know
İskenderunspor history55 matches
Karacabey Belediyespor history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours İskenderunspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why İskenderunspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,517 against 1,501. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.38 goals a game over 55 matches for İskenderunspor, against 1.39 over 56 for Karacabey Belediyespor.
-
Defences are close
İskenderunspor concede 1.33 a game, Karacabey Belediyespor 1.29.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
51% of İskenderunspor matches, against 54% for Karacabey Belediyespor. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karacabey Belediyespor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1516.5
ELO
1500.8
55
ELO · Matches
56
1516.5
Current Team ELO
1500.8
1500.8
Current Opponent ELO
1516.5
15.72
Current ELO Difference
-15.72
0.52
Expected score
0.48
55
History Matches
56
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.98
Overperformance
49.79
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
2.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
56
1.44
PPG
1.43
40.0%
Win rate
41.1%
23.6%
Draw rate
19.6%
36.4%
Loss rate
39.3%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
29
1.93
PPG
1.21
55.6%
Win rate
31.0%
25.9%
Draw rate
27.6%
18.5%
Loss rate
41.4%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
27
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.38
Goals for per game
1.39
72.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.89
Goals for per game
1.31
88.9%
Scoring rate
72.4%
63.0%
BTTS rate
55.2%
55
History Matches
56
1.38
Goals Mean
1.39
1.15
Goals Std
1.21
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
39.3%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.29
74.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.24
74.1%
Conceding rate
72.4%
55
History Matches
56
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.10
Conceded Std
1.08
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.59
2.12
Stability score
4.22
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
56
14
Lead Matches
17
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.84
15
Trailing Matches
13
26.7%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
26.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
202.9
Rest days
203.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
43
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
11
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.83
80.19
Portability Score
57.59
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO15.72
PPG0.01
GF-0.01
GA0.04
PPG0.72
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Conceded 2+ rate4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score-2.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.50
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate19.0%
Trailing Win Rate26.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score22.60
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO15.72
Current Opponent ELO-15.72
Current ELO Difference31.45
Expected score0.05
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
İskenderunspor
D
Serik Spor1–1İskenderunspor7 Nov · away
Pick: İskenderunspor 43% · missed L
İskenderunspor0–112 Bingölspor1 Nov · home
Pick: İskenderunspor 41% · missed L
Ankara Demirspor7–0İskenderunspor24 Oct · away
Pick: İskenderunspor 40% · missed L
İskenderunspor0–2Yeni Orduspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 41% · hit L
İskenderunspor2–324 Erzincanspor4 Oct · home
Pick: İskenderunspor 49% · missed Karacabey Belediyespor
L
Kütahyaspor3–1Karacabey Belediyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Kütahyaspor 47% · hit W
Karacabey Belediyespor3–1 Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor24 Oct · home
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 43% · missed L
Adana 01 FK4–0Karacabey Belediyespor18 Oct · away
Pick: Adana 01 FK 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
İskenderunspor and Karacabey Belediyespor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: İskenderunspor win 37.6%, draw 29.1%, Karacabey Belediyespor win 33.3%. The pick is İskenderunspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.