Pfaffenhofen vs Ismaning
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Pfaffenhofen win
30.2%
Draw Result
24.6%
Ismaning winPick
45.1%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickIsmaning win · 45.1%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 24.6%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 70.0%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 63.7%
What happenedYes · 3–3
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
25%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.1
on average A pick at 45% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes63.7%
No36.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.570.0%
Under 2.530.0%
How much we know
Pfaffenhofen history7 matches
Ismaning history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Kickoff7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full time: 3–3Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.8 Nov · 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Ismaning are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Pfaffenhofen are rated 52 Elo points higher
Elo 1,531 against 1,480. On rating alone Pfaffenhofen would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Pfaffenhofen score more
1.86 goals a game over 7 matches for Pfaffenhofen, against 1.60 over 50 for Ismaning.
-
Pfaffenhofen concede fewer
Pfaffenhofen concede 1.57 a game, Ismaning 1.82.
-
Ismaning games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Pfaffenhofen matches, against 66% for Ismaning. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ismaning@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1531.3
ELO
1479.5
7
ELO · Matches
50
1531.3
Current Team ELO
1479.5
1479.5
Current Opponent ELO
1531.3
51.73
Current ELO Difference
-51.73
0.57
Expected score
0.43
7
History Matches
50
0.21
Residual Mean
-0.02
55.43
Overperformance
48.62
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
2.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
7
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.86
Goals for per game
2.20
1.57
Goals against per game
1.50
57.1%
Win rate
50.0%
1.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.46
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.78
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.59
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals 90
7
Matches
50
2.00
PPG
1.20
57.1%
Win rate
32.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
24.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
44.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals 100
3
Matches
25
2.33
PPG
0.72
66.7%
Win rate
16.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
24.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
3
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.60
71.4%
Scoring rate
78.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
66.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.12
100.0%
Scoring rate
72.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
64.0%
1.86
Goals for per game
2.00
71.4%
Scoring rate
57.1%
57.1%
BTTS rate
28.6%
7
History Matches
50
1.86
Goals Mean
1.60
1.46
Goals Std
1.30
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.0%
42.9%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.82
71.4%
Conceding rate
82.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.16
66.7%
Conceding rate
84.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.14
71.4%
Conceding rate
57.1%
7
History Matches
50
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.59
Conceded Std
1.52
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
7
History Matches
50
0.87
Result entropy
0.97
2.37
Goal Difference Std
2.07
13.01
Stability score
2.75
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
7
Eligible Matches
50
3
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.75
2
Trailing Matches
19
50.0%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.86
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
5
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
1
Long Rest History Matches
14
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
7
Matches
7
2.00
PPG
1.43
57.1%
Win rate
42.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
14.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.64
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.43
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.86
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.31
—
Portability PPG Range
0.70
—
Portability Score
61.96
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
7
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO51.73
PPG0.80
GF0.26
GA-0.25
PPG0.57
PPG1.61
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-43
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate17.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-43
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate18.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-43
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-43
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score10.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches-43
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate31.3%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate23.7%
Trailing Win Rate44.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-43
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.57
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-3.05
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-27
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match2.00
Current Team ELO51.73
Current Opponent ELO-51.73
Current ELO Difference103.5
Expected score0.15
History Matches-43
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance6.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Pfaffenhofen
L
Pfaffenhofen1–5Erlbach31 Oct · home
Pick: Erlbach 34% · hit W
Kirchanschöring0–2Pfaffenhofen24 Oct · away
Pick: Kirchanschöring 46% · missed W
Pfaffenhofen2–1Gundelfingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 46% · hit L
Pfaffenhofen0–3Schwabmünchen29 Aug · home
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 62% · missed D
Pfaffenhofen1–1Heimstetten25 Aug · home
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 51% · missed Ismaning
W
Schalding-Heining0–1Ismaning31 Oct · away
Pick: Ismaning 57% · hit L
Ismaning1–2Schwabmünchen24 Oct · home
Pick: Ismaning 64% · missed W
TuS Geretsried1–2Ismaning17 Oct · away
Pick: Ismaning 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Pfaffenhofen and Ismaning finished 3–3 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 7 November 2026. It was 1–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC, before kickoff: Pfaffenhofen win 30.2%, draw 24.6%, Ismaning win 45.1%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.