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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR

Ponte Preta Home · Elo 1,387
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Operario-PR Away · Elo 1,530
Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Operario-PR win
Ponte Preta win
22.9%
Draw
22.3%
Operario-PR winPick
54.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.1%
No56.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%

How much we know

Ponte Preta history55 matches
Operario-PR history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Operario-PR are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Operario-PR are rated 144 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,387. On rating alone Operario-PR would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Operario-PR score more

    0.75 goals a game over 55 matches for Ponte Preta, against 1.13 over 78 for Operario-PR.

  • Operario-PR concede fewer

    Ponte Preta concede 1.42 a game, Operario-PR 1.06.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of Ponte Preta matches, against 42% for Operario-PR. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1386.7
ELO
1530.5
55
ELO · Matches
78
1386.7
Current Team ELO
1530.5
1530.5
Current Opponent ELO
1386.7
-143.8
Current ELO Difference
143.8
0.30
Expected score
0.70
55
History Matches
78
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.02
42.90
Overperformance
51.68
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.20
0.40
Goals for per game
0.60
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.20
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.30
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
78
0.96
PPG
1.42
25.5%
Win rate
34.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
38.5%
54.5%
Loss rate
26.9%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
34.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
10.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
38
1.14
PPG
1.16
27.6%
Win rate
26.3%
31.0%
Draw rate
36.8%
41.4%
Loss rate
36.8%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
24.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
29
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.75
Goals for per game
1.13
60.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
38.2%
BTTS rate
48.7%
0.83
Goals for per game
0.95
69.0%
Scoring rate
57.9%
41.4%
BTTS rate
44.7%
0.65
Goals for per game
1.25
52.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
54.2%
55
History Matches
78
0.75
Goals Mean
1.13
0.69
Goals Std
0.95
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
14.5%
Scored 2+ rate
34.6%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.0%
0.83
Venue Goals Mean
0.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.06
70.9%
Conceding rate
62.8%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.18
62.1%
Conceding rate
68.4%
2.17
Goals against per game
1.29
95.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
55
History Matches
78
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.26
Conceded Std
1.11
47.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
4.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
78
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.41
8.90
Stability score
0.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
78
10
Lead Matches
20
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.82
21
Trailing Matches
17
4.8%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.02
Rest days
82.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.60
28
Normal Rest History Matches
49
0.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
24
0.30
PPG
1.50
4.3%
Win rate
41.7%
17.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
78.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
23
Current Competition Matches
24
0.30
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.04
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.82
Portability PPG Std
0.19
1.82
Portability PPG Range
0.58
37.83
Portability Score
72.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-143.8
PPG-0.46
GF-0.38
GA0.35
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.02
PPG0.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-23
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches-23
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate16.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches-23
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score7.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.48
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.63
Portability PPG Range1.24
Portability Score-34.50
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-143.8
Current Opponent ELO143.8
Current ELO Difference-287.7
Expected score-0.39
History Matches-23
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ponte Preta

L
Criciuma2–0Ponte Preta30 Oct · away
Pick: Criciuma 69% · hit
D
Ponte Preta2–2Fortaleza EC24 Oct · home
Pick: Fortaleza EC 62% · missed
D
Ponte Preta1–1Atletico Goianiense16 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Goianiense 61% · missed
L
Novorizontino5–1Ponte Preta12 Oct · away
Pick: Novorizontino 73% · hit
L
Ponte Preta0–2Juventude7 Oct · home
Pick: Juventude 65% · hit

Operario-PR

W
Operario-PR3–2Sport Recife6 Nov · home
Pick: Sport Recife 40% · missed
L
Novorizontino2–1Operario-PR1 Nov · away
Pick: Novorizontino 48% · hit
W
Operario-PR1–0Athletic Club23 Oct · home
Pick: Operario-PR 46% · hit
L
America Mineiro1–0Operario-PR17 Oct · away
Pick: Operario-PR 40% · missed
L
Operario-PR1–2Botafogo SP7 Oct · home
Pick: Operario-PR 51% · missed

About this match

Ponte Preta and Operario-PR meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ponte Preta win 22.9%, draw 22.3%, Operario-PR win 54.8%. The pick is Operario-PR win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.8%. Both teams to score: 43.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.