Sakaryaspor vs Ankara Demirspor
Match result probability Model pick: Sakaryaspor win
Sakaryaspor winPick
49.4%
Draw
19.0%
Ankara Demirspor win
31.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.7%
No45.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%
How much we know
Sakaryaspor history59 matches
Ankara Demirspor history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Sakaryaspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Sakaryaspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ankara Demirspor are rated 86 Elo points higher
Elo 1,497 against 1,411. On rating alone Ankara Demirspor would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Ankara Demirspor score more
1.25 goals a game over 59 matches for Sakaryaspor, against 1.47 over 49 for Ankara Demirspor.
-
Ankara Demirspor concede fewer
Sakaryaspor concede 1.75 a game, Ankara Demirspor 1.37.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Sakaryaspor matches, against 55% for Ankara Demirspor. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 2 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ankara Demirspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1411.1
ELO
1497.5
59
ELO · Matches
49
1411.1
Current Team ELO
1497.5
1497.5
Current Opponent ELO
1411.1
-86.41
Current ELO Difference
86.41
0.38
Expected score
0.62
59
History Matches
49
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
44.99
Overperformance
49.91
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals 90
59
Matches
49
1.07
PPG
1.43
27.1%
Win rate
38.8%
25.4%
Draw rate
26.5%
47.5%
Loss rate
34.7%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
24
1.44
PPG
1.25
40.6%
Win rate
33.3%
21.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
41.7%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
32
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.25
Goals for per game
1.47
69.5%
Scoring rate
75.5%
52.5%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.38
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
49
1.25
Goals Mean
1.47
1.28
Goals Std
1.28
69.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
32.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.75
Goals against per game
1.37
78.0%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.67
68.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
49
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.39
Conceded Std
1.26
52.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.0%
27.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
30.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
59
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.18
Goal Difference Std
2.00
3.90
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
59
Eligible Matches
48
15
Lead Matches
16
53.3%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.71
18
Trailing Matches
12
11.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
196.8
Rest days
203.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.47
Portability PPG Range
0.14
68.13
Portability Score
87.77
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
59
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-86.41
PPG-0.36
GF-0.22
GA0.38
PPG0.19
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score2.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.54
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-19.64
Rest days-6.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-86.41
Current Opponent ELO86.41
Current ELO Difference-172.8
Expected score-0.24
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sakaryaspor
L
Sakaryaspor2–3Bursa Yıldırımspor28 Oct · home
Pick: Sakaryaspor 48% · missed L
Sakaryaspor1–324 Erzincanspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Sakaryaspor 49% · missed W
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı1–2Sakaryaspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 49% · missed W
Sakaryaspor2–0Arit Kayadibi6 Oct · home
Pick: Sakaryaspor 68% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Ankara Demirspor
D
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı1–1Ankara Demirspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 54% · missed L
Ankara Demirspor0–1Nilüfer Belediye28 Oct · home
Pick: Ankara Demirspor 46% · missed W
Ankara Demirspor7–0İskenderunspor24 Oct · home
Pick: İskenderunspor 40% · missed W
Kırklarelispor2–4Ankara Demirspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Ankara Demirspor 41% · hit L
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor1–0Ankara Demirspor4 Oct · away
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 62% · hit About this match
Sakaryaspor and Ankara Demirspor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sakaryaspor win 49.4%, draw 19.0%, Ankara Demirspor win 31.5%. The pick is Sakaryaspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.