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Serie B Brazil Round 38 2026

Sport Recife vs Goias

Sport Recife Home · Elo 1,537
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Goias Away · Elo 1,554
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sport Recife win
Sport Recife winPick
46.4%
Draw
25.2%
Goias win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.1%
Under 2.556.9%

How much we know

Sport Recife history86 matches
Goias history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Sport Recife are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,537 against 1,554. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sport Recife score more

    1.29 goals a game over 86 matches for Sport Recife, against 1.09 over 70 for Goias.

  • Goias concede fewer

    Sport Recife concede 1.35 a game, Goias 0.86.

  • Sport Recife games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Sport Recife matches, against 27% for Goias. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sport Recife
Goias@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.4
ELO
1553.7
86
ELO · Matches
70
1537.4
Current Team ELO
1553.7
1553.7
Current Opponent ELO
1537.4
-16.27
Current ELO Difference
16.27
0.48
Expected score
0.52
86
History Matches
70
0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
52.53
Overperformance
53.38
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
70
1.30
PPG
1.53
34.9%
Win rate
40.0%
25.6%
Draw rate
32.9%
39.5%
Loss rate
27.1%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
27.1%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
15.7%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
33
1.43
PPG
1.21
38.3%
Win rate
24.2%
27.7%
Draw rate
48.5%
34.0%
Loss rate
27.3%
87.2%
Over 1.5 rate
57.6%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
18.2%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
12.1%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.03
47
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.09
70.9%
Scoring rate
70.0%
47.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.62
Goals for per game
0.85
80.9%
Scoring rate
60.6%
53.2%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.96
85.0%
Scoring rate
65.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
34.8%
86
History Matches
70
1.29
Goals Mean
1.09
1.21
Goals Std
1.00
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
34.9%
Scored 2+ rate
27.1%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
0.86
69.8%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.38
Goals against per game
0.88
68.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.09
65.0%
Conceding rate
69.6%
86
History Matches
70
1.35
Conceded Mean
0.86
1.21
Conceded Std
0.90
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.6%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.42
1.42
Stability score
1.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
70
23
Lead Matches
26
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
65.4%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.77
25
Trailing Matches
14
16.0%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.88
Rest days
83.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
49
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
25
Long Rest History Matches
26
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
23
1.50
PPG
1.43
35.0%
Win rate
39.1%
45.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
20.0%
Loss rate
34.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
26.1%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
20
Current Competition Matches
23
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.43
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.13
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.89
Portability PPG Range
1.66
43.63
Portability Score
45.77
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-16.27
PPG-0.23
GF0.20
GA0.49
PPG0.07
PPG0.21
PPG1.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate0.9%
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate9.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.49
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate23.3%
Conceded 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches16
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score0.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.53
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-2.14
Rest days-2.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Current Team ELO-16.27
Current Opponent ELO16.27
Current ELO Difference-32.54
Expected score-0.05
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sport Recife

L
Operario-PR3–2Sport Recife6 Nov · away
Pick: Sport Recife 40% · missed
D
Botafogo SP1–1Sport Recife31 Oct · away
Pick: Sport Recife 47% · missed
W
Sport Recife2–1Criciuma24 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Recife 43% · hit
L
Sport Recife0–2Fortaleza EC16 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Recife 37% · missed
W
Sport Recife2–1São Bernardo6 Oct · home
Pick: Sport Recife 54% · hit

Goias

W
Goias2–1CRB2 Nov · home
Pick: Goias 39% · hit
W
Ceara0–2Goias27 Oct · away
Pick: Ceara 42% · missed
D
Goias0–0Nautico Recife19 Oct · home
Pick: Goias 42% · missed
W
Goias2–1Athletic Club6 Oct · home
Pick: Goias 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sport Recife and Goias meet in Serie B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sport Recife win 46.4%, draw 25.2%, Goias win 28.4%. The pick is Sport Recife win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.1%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.