Kırklarelispor vs İnegölspor
Match result probability Model pick: İnegölspor win
Kırklarelispor win
32.1%
Draw
21.6%
İnegölspor winPick
46.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.8%
No44.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%
How much we know
Kırklarelispor history49 matches
İnegölspor history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours İnegölspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why İnegölspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
İnegölspor are rated 146 Elo points higher
Elo 1,556 against 1,410. On rating alone İnegölspor would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.
-
İnegölspor score more
1.14 goals a game over 49 matches for Kırklarelispor, against 1.72 over 53 for İnegölspor.
-
İnegölspor concede fewer
Kırklarelispor concede 1.63 a game, İnegölspor 1.42.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
55% of Kırklarelispor matches, against 62% for İnegölspor. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
İnegölspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1409.8
ELO
1556.3
49
ELO · Matches
53
1409.8
Current Team ELO
1556.3
1556.3
Current Opponent ELO
1409.8
-146.5
Current ELO Difference
146.5
0.30
Expected score
0.70
49
History Matches
53
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.05
43.78
Overperformance
53.42
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
53
0.86
PPG
1.55
20.4%
Win rate
41.5%
24.5%
Draw rate
30.2%
55.1%
Loss rate
28.3%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
55.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.3%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
28
1.20
PPG
1.32
32.0%
Win rate
35.7%
24.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
44.0%
Loss rate
39.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
25
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.14
Goals for per game
1.72
63.3%
Scoring rate
86.8%
51.0%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
82.1%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.7%
49
History Matches
53
1.14
Goals Mean
1.72
1.44
Goals Std
1.28
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
86.8%
24.5%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
24.5%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
1.42
77.6%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.75
72.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
49
History Matches
53
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.34
Conceded Std
1.32
46.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
24.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
53
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
2.16
Goal Difference Std
2.02
9.22
Stability score
1.35
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
53
11
Lead Matches
21
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.70
19
Trailing Matches
11
15.8%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
209.0
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
33
Normal Rest History Matches
37
0.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.06
Portability PPG Range
0.38
94.13
Portability Score
74.69
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-146.5
PPG-0.69
GF-0.57
GA0.22
PPG-0.12
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate23.5%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score7.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score19.44
Rest days6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-146.5
Current Opponent ELO146.5
Current ELO Difference-293.0
Expected score-0.40
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kırklarelispor
L
Kırklarelispor0–3Serik Spor1 Nov · home
Pick: Serik Spor 41% · hit D
12 Bingölspor0–0Kırklarelispor25 Oct · away
Pick: 12 Bingölspor 45% · missed L
Kırklarelispor2–4Ankara Demirspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Ankara Demirspor 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
İnegölspor
L
Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor2–1İnegölspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 60% · hit L
İnegölspor1–4Sebat Gençlikspor28 Oct · home
Pick: İnegölspor 43% · missed D
İnegölspor1–1Adana 01 FK24 Oct · home
Pick: Adana 01 FK 40% · missed L
1461 Trabzon FK2–1İnegölspor17 Oct · away
Pick: İnegölspor 42% · missed L
Ankaragücü4–1İnegölspor4 Oct · away
Pick: Ankaragücü 46% · hit About this match
Kırklarelispor and İnegölspor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kırklarelispor win 32.1%, draw 21.6%, İnegölspor win 46.4%. The pick is İnegölspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.